November JobsTO Labour Lowdown

November JobsTO Labour Lowdown

TWIG
25 November 2024

Toronto’s labour market remained in a holding pattern in October with conditions showing little change from earlier this fall.  The unemployment rate ticked up marginally to 7.5% but still well below the rates seen during the summer. 

Over the past month, there was little movement in employment numbers across all industry sectors in Toronto CMA.  In late October, the Bank of Canada reduced its key benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, a ‘bigger-than-usual’ move which indicated that Canada may be returning to lower inflation rates.  Rate declines are normally followed by increasing employment numbers.  However, some uncertainty will remain with the election of a new administration in the United States; one that proposes higher tariffs on imported goods.

Job demand remained tepid throughout October.  Data from JobsTO indicates that the number of unique job postings were down by 3,000 posts from September, and over 5,000 from the same time period in 2023.  Declines were seen across all sectors of the economy with the only exception being education.  Employment numbers remained stable across most industry sectors across Toronto CMA during October, although it is estimated that the Education sector added over 6,000 jobs.  

While the labour market has been slow over the past several months, there is still significant and ongoing demand for the following occupations:

• Food Support Occupations
• Cooks, Butchers and Bakers
• Office Administrative Assistants – General, Legal and Medical
• Auditors, Accountants and Investment Professionals
• Nursing and Health Professionals

On a more positive note, wages in Toronto continue their upwards trajectory.  Analysts do expect wage expectations and increases to flatten as lower interest rates take effect.

Other notes from October’s Labour Force Survey indicates:

• Across Canada, youth employment for youth aged 15 to 24 increased by 1.20% after nearly a year in the doldrums.
• The labour force participation rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are employed or looking for work—declined 0.1 percentage points to 64.8% in October, the fourth monthly decline since May.
• Over 28.8% of Canadians were living in a household that had found it difficult or very difficult, in October to meet its financial needs in terms of transportation, housing, food, clothing and other necessary expenses. To keep this in perspective, this was down from October 2023 (33.1%) and October 2022 (35.5%).
• Over the past several months, Statistics Canada has been surveying workers about job satisfaction. Currently, workers in agriculture were the most likely to be very satisfied with their job (71.8%), while those in accommodation and food services (50.4%) and retail trade (53.9%) were the least likely to be very satisfied with their job.  

Over the past month, the highest demand for workers was:

1. Registered Nurses
2. Retail Salespersons and Visual Merchandisers
3. Banking, Credit and Other Investment Managers
4. Administrative Officers
5. Cooks

Quarterly Sector Review

Every three months, the TWIG team examines year-over-year trends across all Toronto industry sectors using job posting data for the City of Toronto and estimated employment numbers for Toronto CMA. 

When comparing job post data and employment data for the period of August to October 2024 against data from 2023 an interesting phenomenon arises. Job posts were down by over 28% while employment numbers were actually up by over 2%.  The most likely explanation for this lies in job churn.  There is no way of knowing whether a job post is for replacing an employee who has left or is a new job created by new business or expansion.  Unfortunately, unlike most jurisdictions, Canada doesn’t measure job churn – the movement between jobs for workers (e.g. leaving your current employment for better paying employment). Data from elsewhere tells us that job-to-job movement typically happens at a faster rate when workers are optimistic about economic conditions. Workers tend to not look for new work during uncertainty, believing there is greater security in their current employment.  Given lingering inflationary demands and economic uncertainty, it seems likely that workers in Toronto aren’t as confident in the labour market now as they were at the same time last year.

Transportation and Warehousing Sector

The notable downturn in job postings and hiring within the Transportation and Warehousing Sector could be part of a broader economic adjustments. There are signs that consumer spending on goods is slowing as a result of ongoing inflation, rising housing and energy costs. This reduced demand may lead to lower production volumes, which in turn decreases the need for transportation and storage of goods. As companies streamline operations to maintain competitiveness in a tough market environment, this could lead to hiring freeze.

The numbers may also reflect the impact of the labour disputes at Canada’s largest ports, Vancouver and Montreal. Reduced cargo volumes can result in fewer shifts and potential layoffs. The notable downturn in job postings and hiring within the Transportation and Warehousing Sector could be part of a broader economic adjustments. There are signs that consumer spending on goods is slowing as a result of ongoing inflation, rising housing and energy costs. This reduced demand may lead to lower production volumes, which in turn decreases the need for transportation and storage of goods. As companies streamline operations to maintain competitiveness in a tough market environment, this could lead to hiring freeze.

The numbers may also reflect the impact of the labour disputes at Canada’s largest ports, Vancouver and Montreal. Reduced cargo volumes can result in fewer shifts and potential layoffs. Also, logistic and transportation companies anticipating growth or expansion might delay hiring plans due to the uncertainty caused by the port shutdowns. Changes in employment levels have been steady during this time suggesting that economic uncertainty fosters an environment where workers are more cautious about leaving their current roles for new opportunities.

There are additional labour disruptions in the sector, pending on the length of the Canada postal strike. On the positive side, the Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport is up for some major physical changes in the coming months providing significant economic opportunities, particularly in terms of job creation and the facilitation of the movement of goods.

Finance,  Insurance and Real Estate Sector

The decline in job posting within the finance and insurance sector in Toronto, reflects a cautious approach towards hiring. There has been a significant rise in employment levels in the finance and insurance industry during this period although workers are clearly cautious about changing jobs . While the sector continues to create employment across Toronto, the number of applications for loans and mortgages has been down over the past three months further amplified by the number of homeowners in Toronto defaulting on their mortgages.

Canadian insurance giant Manulife says it has slashed 225 positions, representing 2.5 per cent of its global wealth and asset management team. Sources suggest that the number of employees in the company’s Toronto headquarters were impacted.  Furthermore, the decline in home purchasing and the continued softening of commercial retail and office leasing is likely to limit employment growth for the foreseeable future.

as internal candidates move into roles created by digital innovations or market expansions.

In light of the evolving dynamics within the finance and insurance sector, TWIG is publishing a paper in the new year, providing in-depth labour market analysis of the insurance sector.

The top five in demand occupations in the sector over the past three months were:

• Human resources and business service professionals       
• Computer, software and web designers
• Mathematicians, statisticians, actuaries and data scientists           
• Accounting, insurance and related business administrative occupations  
• Computer and information systems professionals

Health Care Sector

As in other Toronto industry sectors – there has been a reduction in job posts within the health care sector while actual employment numbers ticked upwards (albeit at the slowest pace in over 4 years).  Innovations are impacting the sector as it struggles to address emergency room lineups and the shortage of family physicians. TWIG is curious about recent moves to integrate virtual health care with bricks and mortar clinics.

The LFS data shows a moderate increase of 4.82% in employment levels in the health care sector.

The top five in demand occupations in the sector over the past three months were:

• Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses          
• Home support workers, caregivers and related occupations          
• Administrative assistants             
• Social and community service workers   
• Receptionists

Creative Industries

The Information and Cultural Industries in Toronto, a crucial sector contributing to both economic vibrancy and cultural richness. There was a marked reduction in hiring companies by 31% between October 2023 and October 2024 although employment ticked up marginally. This could reflect a strategic scaling back in operations in response to economic pressures or a pivot towards more cost-effective digital operations that require fewer personnel. This could be because of the hiring nature of the creative sector. They may hire freelancers or contract workers which might not always be reflected in traditional job postings. Companies may rely more on existing networks or platforms specific to the creative industries to source such talent.

The federal government has ordered the dissolution of TikTok’s Canadian offices in Vancouver and Toronto over security concerns. That will be a big hit to both employment and opportunities for content creators. Also, Bell Media confirmed that MTV Canada will go off air by end of year which may lead to some workers being displaced. 

The top five in demand occupations in the sector over the past three months were:

• Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness
• Policy and program researchers, consultants and officers
• Administrative, property and payroll officers
• Customer and information services representatives
• Architects

Business Services

This sector is pivotal in shaping corporate strategies and overseeing broad management functions across various industries. The stable number of new job postings amidst a significant reduction in hiring companies could indicate that the existing companies are centralizing their operations in Toronto, possibly creating more centralized management roles that require specific expertise. The reduction in active job posts could be related to quicker hiring cycles.

The top five in demand occupations in the sector over the past three months were:

• Security guards and related security service occupations
• Administrative officers  
• Financial auditors and accountants          
• Landscapers
• Legal administrative assistants

Science and Technical Sector

Toronto, as a major North American business and innovation hub, houses a significant concentration of firms in the Scientific and Technical sector. Employment in the sector continues to grow by leaps and bounds; however the significant decrease in job postings indicates there is far less job turnover.

While we expect the sector to continue to add jobs over the next several years, we are curious to see how the impacts of artificial intelligence on the skills and jobs in the sector plays out. 

The top five in demand occupations in the sector over the past three months were:

• Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services 
• Managers in engineering, architecture, science and information systems
• Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries      
• Administrative and regulatory occupations           
• Urban planners and land surveyors

Educational Services

This sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in providing instruction and training in a wide variety of subjects.

The federal government’s recent decision to cap the intake of international students is likely to have significant impacts on the educational sector’s hiring and financial stability, particularly in Toronto. This reduction in international student numbers can translate into substantial revenue losses for universities and colleges, as these institutions have increasingly relied on the higher tuition fees paid by international students to compensate for stagnant domestic tuition fees and declining public funding.

The new federal rules have changed how international students can work in Canada after graduation. Starting November 1, 2024, only graduates from public colleges in fields related to labor shortages is eligible for a Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP). In the context of the child care industry, not all international students graduating as ECEs will get a PGWP. The federal government’s list of categories that includes who will continue to qualify for postgraduate work permits as ECEs only mentions ECEs who have graduated with a focus in early childhood special education programs. This restriction will mean fewer qualified ECE workers will be available for expanding and maintaining child care services. This is especially a problem for Ottawa’s $10-a-day child care plan, which needs more ECE professionals to succeed.

The top five in demand occupations in the sector over the past three months were:

• University professors and lecturers
• Instructors
• Secondary school teachers
• Administrative officers
• Administrative assistants

Manufacturing Sector

Up until the 1990’s, Toronto was one of the largest manufacturing centres in North America.  While manufacturing no longer dominates Toronto’s labour market, it has had a renaissance over the last decade as the City of Toronto has made concerted efforts to attract both advanced manufacturing in Aerospace and has nurtured small and medium food manufacturers.

Like many other employment sectors, JobsTO has seen a rather significant decline in the number of companies and jobs posts over the past 12 months.  Most of the decline in posts have been seen in assembly and labourer occupations, while posts for industrial trades have remained steady.  Although job posts have declined, total employment in manufacturing has increased by 21,000 over the past twelve months.     

The erosion of job posts can be attributed to fewer workers leaving jobs with their current employer.  During times of economic uncertainty, workers are far less likely to look for new job opportunities.  Unfortunately, the outlook for Toronto’s manufacturing sector remains cloudy.  The election of a new American administration who promised to increase tariffs on foreign goods has caused a freeze on manufacturing investments.  Closer to home, there is an increasing sentiment among many Toronto-based manufacturers about road congestion and the difficulty it is presenting around logistics and delivery (getting goods to market).

Manufacturing in Toronto is currently facing headwinds, both external and self-imposed.  Given that international trade and regional traffic congestion are at the forefront of policy discussions in Government, we remain relatively bullish over the long-term about Toronto’s manufacturing sector as a source of good employment.  However, over the short term, our optimism is tempered by the issues that need to be resolved.

The top five in demand occupations in the sector over the past three months were:

• Middle management occupations in manufacturing and utilities
• Sales and service representatives
• Millwrights – Industrial Mechanics
• Helpers and labourers
• Transport drivers

Construction Sector

The construction sector in Toronto is facing significant challenges which is borne out in both JobsTO data and employment numbers from across the Toronto CMA. With employment falling by over 32,000 workers in the past twelve months, labour shortages that had been plaguing the industry seem to now be well into the rearview mirror.  Employment is not expected to rebound until lower interest fully take effect. Indeed, construction permits being issued by the City of Toronto continue to decline in terms of both numbers issued and their value. A new report from Urbanation shows just how much the drastic slowdown in sales is affecting new construction, with a total of 40 buildings slated to debut this year now shelved.

Meanwhile, Eglinton Crosstown, one of Toronto’s largest construction projects just celebrated its 14th birthday.  We hope that TWIG will be forgiven in not wishing it many more.

The top five in demand occupations in the sector over the past three months were:

• Construction managers 
• Construction trades helpers and labourers           
• Contractors and supervisors, carpentry trades    
• Construction estimators
• Administrative officers

Hospitality Sector

Toronto’s tourism and hospitality industry employment has still yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. While year-over-year employment has shown signs of life, the substantive decline in job posts indicates that generally the demand for workers in the industry is not experiencing significant difficulty.  However, a cursory review of the job posting data does indicate that that cooks and servers are consistently in demand.  

Like several other industries, key employers in the sector have indicated that traffic congestion in Toronto’s downtown core is having a dilatory impact on the restaurant industry.  We do see a number of positive developments.  A number of new entertainment complexes are opening or expanding. The Well, one of Toronto’s most ambitious entertainment developments is about to open a major expansion that includes additional restaurants and recreational activities.

The top five in demand occupations in the sector over the past three months were:

• Cooks  
• Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations           
• Butchers         
• Bakers
• Food and beverage servers

Retail and Wholesale Trade Sector

Toronto’s beleaguered retail and wholesale sector is showing few signs that a rebound is imminent. Job postings, hiring activity and actual employment in Toronto’s wholesale and retail sectors have declined between October 2023 and October 2024. This decline stems from multiple factors, including macroeconomic challenges, technological advancements, and evolving consumer behaviors.

Rising inflation and cost-of-living pressures have led to financial difficulties, dampening consumer spending and reducing demand for traditional holiday retail roles. Across Canada, over the last quarter, core bricks and mortar retail sales have declined by almost 1% while e-commerce declined by over 2.5%.  Recent supply chain and shipping issues due to labour strife is likely to amplify the decline in sales in the coming months. 

The top five in demand occupations in the sector over the past three months were:

Retail salespersons and non-technical wholesale trade sales and account representatives

• Retail and wholesale trade managers
• Cashiers and other sales support occupations
• Retail sales supervisors
• Customer and information services representatives
• Auditors, accountants and investment professionals