JobsTO Labour Lowdown October
21 October 2024
Toronto’s Labour Market Brightens on Good Economic News
After months of a sluggish job market in Toronto and across the rest of the country, September’s labour market exceeded economists’ expectations, with the economy adding more than twice as many jobs as the previous month, while unemployment declined. Toronto’s unemployment rate dropped by 1.5% while employment rates improved to 60.7%. Statistics Canada reported youth and women aged 25 to 54 drove employment gains last month, while full-time employment saw its largest gain since May 2022.
A number of financial institutions indicated that some caution should be applied the September jobs report. TD cautioned that the Stat Can jobs report can be volatile, and that the longer-term trend in Canada’s labour market has been downward. The caution is also echoed in TWIG’s own JobsTO data which relies on job posting data. Both the number of unique job postings and companies hiring declined. September’s number of postings declined by over 12,000 from the previous month
It should be noted, that since job posting data is not adjusted for seasonality, the number of job posts in September 2024 only declined by 2,000 when compared to September of the previous year.
TWIG remains relatively confident that the Toronto Job Market will continue to improve. With last months rate cuts and news from earlier this week that the annual rate of inflation has fallen to its lowest level in years (1.6 per cent) on a year-over-year basis. That’s the lowest rate Canadians have seen since February 2021 when the CPI came in at 1.1 per cent.
Sector Bright Spots
Toronto’s Finance and Insurance Sector continued to drive employment gains across the city. Adding over 7,000 jobs in September alone and over 30,000 employment gains since this time last year. An upcoming report from TWIG is focusing on the Insurance sub-sector, which by all accounts is playing an important role in current and future job creation in Toronto.
While the importance of manufacturing to Toronto has dwindled over the past three decades, the sector is seeing a renaissance across Toronto. Over the past year the number of jobs in Toronto manufacturing has increase by over 20,000 jobs. While the data is too volatile to examine manufacturing subsectors, there has been some indication that the added jobs have come primarily from both the aerospace and food manufacturing sectors.
Sectors with Challenges
Alarm bells continue to ring across Toronto’s construction sector. Dwelling and commercial construction has continued to contract having lost over 40,000 jobs since September of 2023. Equally worrying is the continued declines in building permits being issued. The precipitous decline in permits does not auger well for the last quarter of this year.
Wholesale and Retail Trade continues to decline after previous gains from last year. Discussion with Toronto retailers animates a lack of confidence. Dealing with inflation, higher interest rates and substantial tax increases echo across many on Toronto’s main street retailers. The sector is unlikely to add jobs in Toronto until it has confidence that there is a future in bricks and mortar retail.
Based on JobsTo data, the following occupations have been identified as being most “in-demand”.
- Nursing and Allied Health Professionals
- Auditors, Accountants and Investment Professionals
- Food Support Occupations
- Cooks, Butchers and Bakers
- Office Administrative Assistants – General, Legal and Medical
Like many other labour market analysts, TWIG continues to push for more data from the Federal Government on job churn (new jobs versus old jobs) in order to better determine labour market
Other Labour Market News
The City unveiled a long-term strategy to guide its economic growth over the next decade, calling for “a new approach” to help solve some of its toughest challenges. Some of the key economic action items in the report seem to be designed to address concerns being faced by Toronto retailers (see above). Other key action items in the plan include making the city the most competitive business environment in North America by reducing the commercial-residential property tax ratio to 50 per cent less than residential levy increases in any given year, until the provincial ratio is met (in short, Toronto has increased commercial property taxes over the last decade instead of residential taxes). The report also calls for a new business incentive program by the end of 2025 to “support targeted employment uses, increase high-quality jobs, stimulate investment across the city, drive broader city-building goals, and enhance Toronto’s competitive edge.” For more see: Sidewalks to Skylines: An Action Plan for Toronto’s Economy 2025-2035
Quality of Work: Statistics Canada released a second set of articles for its Quality of Employment in Canada publication, following those published on July 25, 2024. This report focussed on sick leave and found positive movement. The sick leave entitlement indicator refers to the proportion of employees who have paid sick leave coverage in their main job. According to results from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), almost two-thirds (64.0%) of employees in Canada indicated that they had access to paid sick leave in their main job in 2023, up from 59.7% in 2021. The Daily — Fall update to the Quality of Employment in Canada publication, 2023 (statcan.gc.ca)
Federal Government Cuts Student Permits Again. The Federal government says it will slash the number of international students permits it issues by another 10 per cent. The government says the new target for 2025 and 2026 will be 437,000 permits. In 2024, the target was 485,000 permits. Ottawa is also putting new limits on work permits for spouses of both foreign workers and students in master’s degree programs.
