JobsTO Labour Lowdown January 2025
11 February 2025
In January 2025, Toronto’s labour market surprised economists by exhibiting positive momentum, and aligning with provincial and national employment trends. Analysts had been expecting the economy would have lost significant jobs based on the spectre of proposed U.S. tariffs and seasonal layoffs in the post holiday season. The employment rate in Toronto reached 62%, the highest it has been in the past 14 months.
Overall, Toronto CMA’s total employment stood at 3,693,700 in January 2025, showing a slight increase from 3,682,000 in December 2024, reflecting a 0.3% growth. This indicates a moderate but steady labour market expansion despite sectoral fluctuations. While average hourly wages for permanent employees in Toronto saw a year-over-year increase, though the pace of growth has moderated compared to previous months. This trend suggests that while employment opportunities are slightly expanding, wage growth is stabilizing.
While Toronto’s labour market in January 2025 showed largely positive trends, with moderate employment growth, a cautionary note can be seen in the steep decline in job postings compared to January 2024.
Sectoral Employment with Job Growth (January 2025 vs. December 2024)
- Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services: Employment increased to 532,300 from 525,100 in December (+7,200 jobs, 1.4% growth).
- Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and Leasing Employment rose to 467,400 from 465,600 (+1,800 jobs, 0.4% growth) reflecting the stability in Toronto’s financial sector, bolstered by the ongoing strength of banking, investment, and real estate markets.
- Education & Public Administration. Employment climbed to 409,900 from 404,800 (+5,100 jobs, 1.3% growth). The hiring boost may be linked to new government initiatives or a seasonal increase in school-related employment. There is some expectation that this may decline due to cutbacks in the number of temporary foreign students being allowed into Canada.
- Wholesale and Retail Trade. Employment increased to 490,700 from 484,000 (+6,700 jobs, 1.4% growth). Normally – January will see a slowdown in retail employment, but curiously retailers maintained workforce levels.
- Manufacturing. Employment rose slightly to 347,500 from 345,000 (+2,500 jobs, 0.7% growth). Mirroring the rest of Ontario, there is some thought that manufacturers were producing goods in advance of proposed tariffs. This growth might be short lived.
- Information, Culture, and Recreation. Employment rose to 163,700 from 156,600 (+7,100 jobs, 4.5% growth).
Sectors with Job Declines (January 2025 vs. December 2024)
- Accommodation and Food Services. Employment fell to 167,400 from 174,800 (-7,400 jobs, -4.2% decline). The post-holiday drop in demand and seasonal layoffs likely contributed to this decline.
- Transportation and Warehousing. Employment declined to 209,900 from 214,300 (-4,400 jobs, -2.1% decline). This may be linked to reduced logistics demand following the holiday rush.
- Construction & Utilities Employment dipped slightly to 225,800 from 227,000 (-1,200 jobs, -0.5% decline). This has been part of continuing 14 month decline as new commercial and residential construction projects remain stalled or cancelled.
- Business, Building, and Other Support Services. Employment declined to 140,300 from 143,600 (-3,300 jobs, -2.3% decline).
Key Takeaways
- Toronto’s job market showed resilience, adding 11,700 jobs in January 2025, with notable growth in tech, finance, education, and retail.
- Sectors like hospitality and transportation experienced seasonal declines, likely due to post-holiday demand shifts.
- The tech and finance sectors continue to be major drivers of employment, reinforcing Toronto’s position as a financial and innovation hub.
- Retail job gains signal economic optimism, while minor construction declines indicate possible winter slowdowns.
Job Postings – A Steep Year-Over-Year Decline
Despite employment stability, job postings in Toronto fell by 58.7% year-over-year (YoY), from 28,477 in January 2024 to just 11,762 in January 2025.
Key Job Posting Trends (YoY)
| Sector | Jan 2025 Job Count | Jan 2024 Job Count | % Change (YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 390 | 937 | -58.4% |
| Construction & Utilities | 416 | 1,034 | -59.8% |
| Manufacturing | 317 | 859 | -63.1% |
| Retail & Wholesale Trade | 1,489 | 3,777 | -60.6% |
| Transportation | 276 | 632 | -56.3% |
| Creative Industries | 695 | 1,788 | -61.1% |
| Finance | 2,239 | 5,239 | -57.3% |
| Science & Technical | 1,422 | 4,078 | -65.1% |
| Business Services | 840 | 2,578 | -67.4% |
| Education & Public Admin | 760 | 2,116 | -64.1% |
| Health Care | 1,981 | 3,649 | -45.7% |
| Hospitality & Tourism | 937 | 1,790 | -47.7% |
| 11,762 | 28,477 | -58.7% |
Key Observations
- Professional and business services saw the largest declines (-67.4%), suggesting reduced demand for white-collar roles.
- Science & Technical jobs also dropped significantly (-65.1%), despite employment growth in this sector.
- Health Care had the most resilience (-45.7%), reflecting continued demand but fewer new openings.
- Finance saw a sharp drop in postings (-57.3%), despite ongoing employment stability, signaling a slowdown in hiring new roles.
- Construction & Utilities saw postings fall by 59.8%, aligning with minor job losses in the sector.
Interpreting the Discrepancy Between Employment and Job Postings
Although employment remains stable, companies appear cautious about hiring new workers due to economic uncertainties, leading to a slowdown in new job postings rather than outright job losses. Employers are increasingly focusing on internal mobility and talent retention instead of expanding their workforce, suggesting a tightening job market. Additionally, automation and productivity improvements, particularly in finance, business services, and technical roles, are reducing the need for new hires. Seasonal and economic factors also play a role, with sharp declines in job postings for hospitality, construction, and retail indicating weaker confidence in near-term consumer demand and economic conditions.
