Now More than Ever. Measuring Job Churn.
17 December 2024
In Canada’s rapidly evolving economy, measuring job churn—the movement of workers into and out of employment—is essential for understanding labour market dynamics. This is particularly critical in Ontario, the country’s economic powerhouse, where cities like Toronto, Ottawa, London and Hamilton drive growth across industries such as technology, finance, manufacturing, and healthcare. The urgency of this issue has grown with the new American administration’s trade policies, which include the threat of tariffs on Canadian exports like steel, manufacturing, and energy. These measures could disrupt Canada’s labour markets, particularly in Ontario, leading to layoffs, worker displacement, and uncertainty in critical sectors. Without accurate job churn data, policymakers will struggle to assess the scale of these impacts or develop targeted responses to protect jobs and support workers.
However, Canada currently lacks a comprehensive system to measure job churn. Unlike the Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in the United States, Canada does not have a dedicated program to track job creation, job destruction, and turnover. This data gap puts the country—and key provinces like Ontario—at a competitive disadvantage. Without a clear understanding of job churn, governments cannot determine how many jobs being created are new opportunities versus replacement jobs—roles that fill gaps left by turnover rather than driving net employment growth. This distinction is critical for evaluating economic progress, labour market health, and workforce resilience.
One promising methodology to address this gap is to use job posting data in tandem with traditional employment statistics, such as those from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Tools like TWIG’s JobsTO system, which aggregate and analyze real-time job postings, can be combined with employment data to approximate churn rates and provide insights into the labour market. For instance:
- Job Posting Data: By analyzing the volume, frequency, and duration of postings, researchers can estimate job openings and turnover trends. A high rate of recurring job postings may indicate replacement jobs caused by churn, while consistent growth in new postings signals job creation.
- Labour Force Survey (LFS): LFS employment numbers provide the baseline data on employment and unemployment, helping to contextualize the trends revealed in job postings. Together, these tools can estimate how much of employment growth is being driven by new jobs versus workforce replacement.
By combining job posting data with employment surveys, Canada can begin to fill the missing information on churn and turnover. For example, in Ontario’s technology sector, JobsTO might reveal a spike in demand for software developers, while LFS data could confirm whether the workforce is expanding or simply replacing positions left vacant due to turnover. Similarly, high churn in retail and hospitality could be identified by a combination of frequent job postings and stagnant employment levels.
For businesses, this approach provides a clearer picture of workforce trends, helping to improve retention strategies and plan for future hiring needs. For policymakers, it allows for evidence-based decisions on training programs, workforce supports, and job creation initiatives. Workers benefit by gaining insights into career pathways, reskilling opportunities, and emerging job markets.
Canada’s inability to systematically measure job churn hampers its ability to distinguish between growth and replacement in the labour market, limiting its capacity to respond to disruptions like tariffs, automation, or demographic shifts. By leveraging tools like TWIG’s JobsTO system alongside employment data from the LFS, policymakers can bridge this gap and build a more complete understanding of the labour market. Addressing this deficiency will ensure that Canada and Ontario remain competitive, resilient, and adaptive in a changing global economy. Without comprehensive churn data and integrated methodologies, the country risks overlooking critical labour trends, delaying its response to economic challenges, and missing opportunities to foster meaningful, long-term job growth.
