The “bubble chart” presents a current, monthly view of Toronto’s labour market. It captures three distinct pieces of information and displays them on a single chart for each of the region’s industry clusters.
The first is shown on the horizontal axis – industry growth over the past five years as compared to the average employment growth for the entire region. This is capturing the longer-term trajectory of the industry. Between July 2020 and July 2025, total employment in Toronto grew by 25.6%. Over that same time, Manufacturing grew by 26.8%, so basically only 1% more than the overall. As a result, Manufacturing (dark grey dot) is shown in the middle of the chart. Hospitality and Tourism (green dot to the right) has grown by nearly 92% while Business, Building and Support Services (light brown dot on the left) shrank by 6.3%.
The second piece of information is shown by position on the vertical axis – average employment growth in the industry for the past three months, in this case April-May, May-June and June-July. This is capturing the immediate, short-term changes in each industry cluster, but averaged over three months to reduce the noise. For example, Education and Public Administration (dark green dot at the bottom) has decreased on average 2.8% over the past three months while Manufacturing (dark blue dot in the middle) has not grown at all (average 0.16%). The Creative Industries (dark purple dot, top middle) while growing slower than the region, has an average grown of 3.25% per month over the past three months.
The final bit of information included on the chart is the total size (employment) of the industry in the current month. The larger the circle, the higher the employment. It ranges from 133,000 (Business, Building and Support services – light brown dot on the left) to 531,900 (Wholesale and Retail Trade – large light grey dot just left of the middle).
Overall, some correlation (expected) between long-term and immediate growth is seen. The dots roughly line up from lower left (growing slower than the region and low growth in the past three months) to upper right (growing faster than the region and higher growth in the past three months). However, the exceptions (Creative Industries, Transportation and Warehousing, Education and Public Service, Business, Building and Support Services) are interesting and may warrant additional investigation.
Additionally, the chart will be updated every month so variation over time (watching how the bubbles float around and change size) can also be examined.
All data from the monthly Labour Force Survey (LFS) from Statistics Canada and for the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA).
So – what does the “bubble chart tell us”?
Too often, we rely on snapshots of the labour market that capture only a moment in time. Even a one-year view can be misleading, shaped more by short-term fluctuations or external shocks than by deeper trends. Headlines built on three-month changes can tell us something useful, but it is the five-year horizon that reveals the real story. When we began comparing the two, we might have guessed that construction, finance, and health care would emerge as Toronto’s fastest-growing sectors. But the results were surprising: only health care held up, while the real standouts over five years were hospitality and tourism, alongside education and public administration
Construction and Utilities 16.1% over five years, but well below the regional average of 25.8%. In the short term, the sector added jobs modestly, with a 0.7% average increase over the past three months. Current employment stands at 229,900, reflecting steady but slower-than-average growth.
Manufacturing has tracked very closely with Toronto’s overall labour market, expanding by 26.8% over the past five years, just slightly above the 25.6% average. However, in the short term the sector has stalled because of ongoing tariff issues with the U.S.
Wholesale and Retail Trade has expanded 18.2% over five years, slower than the regional benchmark. Short-term growth has been weakly positive, averaging +0.3%. Yet, at 531,900 employed, it remains Toronto’s single largest employment sector.
Transportation and Warehousing employment only rose 13.3% across five years, well below average. Short-term performance has been strong, however some of that short-term expansion could be related to employers making shipments in advance of U.S. tariffs.
Finance and Insurance has not shown the kind of consistent and long-term strength expected. Employment as lagged with only 17.9% growth over five years, clearly underperforming the Toronto average. Its three-month average is negative at –0.7%, with employment currently at 450,200. This sector is large but currently softening.
Scientific and Technical Services is one of Toronto’s fastest growing sectors over the past five years, with growth well above average. In the most recent three-month period, employment gains have remained positive, if more moderate.
Business, Building, and Other Support Services stand out as our region’s most vulnerable sectors. Over the past five years, employment has contracted by 6.3%, making it the only sector to show sustained decline. Short-term growth has also been weak, suggesting that the decline is structural, likely tied to outsourcing, automation, lingering effects of the pandemic and efforts to contain costs.
Education and Public Administration have grown modestly over the five-year horizon, keeping pace with Toronto’s overall employment trajectory. However, in the most recent three-month period the sector contracted by 2.8%. This contrast suggests a stable long-term base but recent volatility tied to seasonal factors and public budget pressures.
Health Care has been one of the Toronto’s strongest performers, growing well above the Toronto average over the past five years. In the past three months, the sector has also continued to add jobs, reflecting structural demand linked to demographics and system pressures that keep labour needs high.
Creative Industries presents a split picture. Over the past five years, employment growth has lagged the regional average, but the short-term performance has been exceptional, with gains averaging 3.25% per month.
Hospitality and Tourism employment has been the most dramatic growth story. Over five years the sector has expanded by nearly 92%, far outstripping every other cluster. In the most recent three months, growth has remained positive, likely reflecting seasonal related growth.
