Despite broader economic turbulence, employment data from both the Labour Force Survey and Jobs TO were moderately positive. Toronto’s unemployment rate edged down slightly to 9.3% in April, from 9.5% in March, interrupting the upward trajectory seen since January. While still elevated relative to previous months and significantly higher than Ontario’s (7.2%) and Canada’s (6.6%) rates, the decline suggests early stabilization, possibly aided by seasonal hiring and modest gains in service-oriented sectors.
The employment rate rose to 61.6%, matching January’s high and up from 61.3% in March. This indicates stronger labour absorption despite a steady labour force inflow. The participation rate remained stable at 67.7%, reflecting consistent labour market engagement amid Toronto’s ongoing economic adjustment.
Toronto Wages
Wage trends in Toronto held steady. Average hourly wages ticked up to $38.52 in April, from $38.31 in March. While below the October 2024 peak of $40.39, wages continue to outpace the national average of $36.17. This sustained wage premium underscores Toronto’s competitive job market and cost of living pressures.
Toronto CMA total employment reached 3,741,000 in April 2025, up 3.5% from 3,614,300 in April 2024. Toronto’s wage landscape in April 2025 remained relatively stable. The average hourly wage increased slightly to $38.52, up from $38.31 in March. This figure continues to surpass the national average of $36.17, highlighting Toronto’s competitive labour market and higher living costs. Despite economic uncertainties, wage growth has shown resilience, particularly in sectors such as finance and insurance.
Sector-level performance remained mixed:
- Finance and Insurance maintained strong momentum with employment rising 9.8% to 463,100.
- Hospitality and Tourism grew 6.9% to 170,200, continuing its post-pandemic recovery.
- Business, Building and Other Support Services expanded by 9.1%, reaching 138,700.
- Manufacturing added jobs, up 6.4% to 364,300.
- Education and Public Administration climbed 6.5% to 302,000.
- Creative Industries increased 4.7%, totaling 139,800.
However, several sectors showed year-over-year declines:
- Transportation and Warehousing fell 7.4% to 205,100.
- Construction and Utilities declined 3.9% to 224,800.
- Scientific and Technical Services inched down 0.5%, while Retail and Wholesale Trade was essentially flat.
These divergent trends highlight the uneven nature of both the Toronto economy and impacts of tariff-sensitive and capital-intensive sectors still under pressure.
Looking Ahead:
Toronto’s outlook remains cautiously optimistic but also highly dependent on tariff negotiations. While easing unemployment and growing employment hint at recovery, structural weaknesses in construction, transportation, and high-tech industries may limit near-term gains. Service-driven sectors like hospitality, finance, and public services are likely to anchor continued growth through Q2 2025.
JobsTO
April’s job posting trends also offer mixed signals. Compared to April 2024:
- The number of companies hiring dropped from 13,938 to 8,127 (down 41.7%).
- Active job postings declined from 50,213 to 25,974 (down 48.3%).
- Month-over-month, however, hiring activity rose modestly. From March to April 2025:
- Companies hiring increased by 2.2% (from 7,955 to 8,127).
- Active postings rose by 6.5% (from 24,398 to 25,974).
This modest rebound suggests cautious employer optimism and potential stabilization in hiring or it could signal companies selling in advance of tariffs taking effect.
Job Postings by Industry
Year-over-year declines persisted across most sectors:
- Transportation: down 69.2% (from 945 to 291).
- Construction and Utilities: down 56.3%.
- Business Services: down 53.6%.
- Science and Technical Services: down 59.8%.
- Education/Public Administration: down 56.7%.
- Finance (down 45.2%) and Health Care (down 41.9%) were less severely affected, while Hospitality and Tourism postings, though down 44.5%, showed signs of plateauing after steep previous declines.
In Other News
The City of Toronto’s “Buy Local, Buy Canadian” campaign and Ontario’s reinforced procurement strategy are expected to support domestic demand and provide some counterweight to external economic uncertainty.
Housing Market: Sales Slowdown and Price Adjustments
April 2025 witnessed a significant downturn in Toronto’s housing market. Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) fell by 23.3% compared to April 2024, marking one of the slowest Aprils in nearly three decades. The average selling price decreased by 4.1% year-over-year to $1,107,463, with the composite benchmark price down 5.4% . This decline is attributed to ongoing economic uncertainties and cautious buyer sentiment. However, the increase in new listings by 8.1% year-over-year suggests a more balanced market, potentially offering opportunities for prospective buyers.
Rental Market: Gradual Decline in Rates
The rental market in Toronto showed signs of easing in April 2025. Average asking rents declined for the fifth consecutive month, with an overall drop of 4.8%. One-bedroom units saw a 0.3% month-over-month decrease to $1,850, reflecting a 2.4% decline year-over-year . The vacancy rate increased to 2.7%, the highest in recent years, indicating a shift towards a more tenant-friendly market. Factors contributing to this trend include increased housing supply and changing migration patterns within the city.
Hudson’s Bay Company Bankruptcy
The retail landscape in Toronto faced a significant shift with the bankruptcy of the Hudson’s Bay Company. This development has led to the closure of several iconic locations, including the flagship store at Yonge and Queen. The closures underscore the challenges faced by traditional retailers in adapting to changing consumer behaviors.
