August JobsTO Labour Lowdown

August JobsTO Labour Lowdown

TWIG
23 August 2024

Labour Market Holds Steady in July.

Toronto’s labour market conditions showed a slight improvement since June 2024 with the unemployment rate dipping from 8.1% in June to 7.5% in July.  The employment rate was up marginally to 60%.  Largest employment gains were seen in Creative, Hospitality and Tourism, and Finance Industries.  Slight employment losses were seen in construction, retail and transportation industries.

The number of job postings declined slightly but remain relatively robust.  To date, increases in job postings have served as a fairly solid indicator of future employment rates.  TWIG forecasts that Toronto’s employment rates should improve towards the end of the summer, although any predictions are reliant on future interest rate cuts

The LFS indicated that from July 2023 to July 2024, the unemployment rate of recent immigrants (who had landed in Canada within the previous five years) rose 3.1 percentage points to 12.6% (three-month moving averages, not seasonally adjusted).  The increase was particularly notable for recent immigrant youth,

July’s LFS put the spotlight on parents with children. In July, the LFS asked additional questions to better understand career and employment barriers experienced by mothers and fathers. Compared with their male counterparts, higher proportions of core-aged mothers with a child aged 12 and younger had turned down a job offer (7.0% compared with 3.7% of fathers), changed to a less demanding job or position (8.2% compared with 3.7% of fathers) or reduced their regular work hours (18.2% compared with 10.1% of fathers) over the 12-month period ending in July.

Jobs in Highest Demand in Toronto

According to an analysis of posting data from JobsTO, the five hardest to fill occupations in Toronto are:

1. Registered Nurses and Registered Psychiatric Nurses
2. Retail Salespersons and Visual Merchandisers
3. Banking, Credit and Other Investment Managers
4. Administrative Officers
5. Cooks

Educational Attainment:

For employers who request educational qualifications as part of their job post: 

Certificates and Micro-Credentials

Year Over Year Job Posting Data

This is a new feature of our Labour Lowdown series that we will be introducing on a quarterly basis, examining the year over year job posting data, including by sector or industry.  In short – what Toronto industries are growing and what industries are stagnant.

1. Transportation and Warehousing
July 2023	July 2024	Trend
Active Job Posts 738	Active Job Posts 900	Increase 22%
New Job Posts 431	New Job Posts 476	Increase 10%
Companies Hiring 134	Companies Hiring 92	Decrease 31%

This sector includes establishments focused on transporting passengers and goods, warehousing and storing goods and related services.

Although fewer companies are hiring within the sector, the increase in job postings reflects intensified recruitment efforts. Growth in transportation and warehousing is driven by e-commerce, particularly in logistics roles like supply chain management and warehouse operations. As technology streamlines these processes, there is a growing demand for tech-savvy workers, including software developers, IT support specialists, and system operators, to manage and optimize automated fulfillment systems, increasing the need for specialized skills.

2. Information and Cultural Industries
July 2023	July 2024	Trend
Active Job Posts 1884	Active Job Posts 2610	Increase 39%
New Job Posts 1020	New Job Posts 1327	Increase 30%
Companies Hiring 351	Companies Hiring 273	Decrease 22%

This sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in producing and distributing (except by wholesale and retail methods) information and cultural products. The main components of this sector are the motion picture and sound recording industries, the publishing industries, the broadcasting and content providers industries, the telecommunications industries, the computing infrastructure providers, data processing and hosting services industries, and the web search portals, libraries, archives, and other information services industries.

Toronto is a popular hub for domestic and international film and TV productions, with high-profile projects like Netflix’s Reacher (Season 3) and The Boys (Season 5) filmed in the city, driving demand for professionals in roles such as camera operators, set design, post-production, sound technicians, and production coordinators. The expansion of TIFF’s year-round programming in 2024, including more screenings and industry events, has increased hiring for event coordinators, PR specialists, and program managers. As a tech hub, Toronto is also seeing job growth in telecommunications and web services, due to increasing reliance on digital communications and online services, with rising demand for network managers, cybersecurity experts, and data processors. Government grants, like the 2023 federal budget’s $40M boost to the Canada Media Fund, may have further fueled hiring.

3. Finance and Insurance
July 2023	July 2024	Trend
Active Job Posts 4366	Active Job Posts 6087	Increase 39%
New Job Posts 2820	New Job Posts 3531	Increase 25%
Companies Hiring 325	Companies Hiring 288	Decrease 11%

This sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in financial transactions. It includes establishments that are primarily engaged in financial intermediation, in the pooling of risk by underwriting annuities and insurance, in providing specialized services that facilitate or support financial intermediation, insurance and employee benefit programs. In addition, establishments charged with monetary control – the monetary authorities – are included in this sector.

The rise in job postings in Toronto’s Finance and Insurance sector from July 2023 to 2024 reflects the city’s growing status as a financial hub and a key player in FinTech. Numerous startups and established financial institutions are investing in digital innovation, leading to increased hiring for tech roles. For instance, TD’s 2023 hiring goals build on its 2022 plan to recruit over 2,000 professionals skilled in DevOps, cloud, machine learning, automation, agile methodology, UX design, and mobile technology.

4. Professional and Technical Services
July 2023	July 2024	Trend
Active Job Posts 4335	Active Job Posts 4942	Increase 14%
New Job Posts 2564	New Job Posts 2461	Decrease 4%
Companies Hiring 1004	Companies Hiring 741	Decrease 26%

This sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in activities in which human capital is the major input. The main components of this sector are legal services; accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping and payroll services; architectural, engineering and related services; specialized design services; computer systems design and related services; management, scientific and technical consulting services; scientific research and development services; and advertising, public relations, and related services.

Toronto’s reputation as a tech hub is attracting more local and international companies, driving demand for professionals in computer systems design, software development, and IT consulting. As companies accelerate digital transformation, the need for management and IT consulting, along with scientific research services, has grown. Firms like Deloitte and PwC have expanded their teams, leading to more job openings. Additionally, major infrastructure projects have boosted demand for architectural, engineering, and specialized design services.

5. Management of Companies and Enterprises
July 2023	July 2024	Trend
Active Job Posts 210	Active Job Posts 254	Increase 21%
New Job Posts 123	New Job Posts 105	Decrease 15%
Companies Hiring 33	Companies Hiring 28	Decrease 15%

This sector includes entities that hold securities of subsidiaries to control or influence their management, and establishments focused on managing and overseeing other parts of the company, which may also hold securities of their subsidiaries.

Toronto has seen a surge of multinational corporations expanding or establishing regional headquarters. Companies like Google and Amazon have increased their management teams to oversee North American operations, leading to more job postings in corporate governance, finance, and strategic planning.

6. Education Services
July 2023	July 2024	Trend
Active Job Posts 2095	Active Job Posts 2149	Increase 3%
New Job Posts 1303	New Job Posts 1103	Decrease 15%
Companies Hiring 247	Companies Hiring 208	Decrease 16%

This sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in providing instruction and training in a wide variety of subjects.

Interest in skills-based training programs is growing to meet workforce needs. The Ontario government is supporting developing micro-credentials for in-demand jobs in sectors like healthcare and advanced manufacturing. Institutions like Canadian College of Healthcare and Pharmaceutics is offering programs like Cybersecurity for Healthcare Professionals. George Brown College and Humber College have expanded their course offerings in high-demand fields such as technology, healthcare, and business, leading to more job opportunities for instructors and program coordinators. Additionally, Toronto’s established and emerging EdTech companies are investing in digital tools and platforms, increasing job postings for IT specialists and educational technologists.

7. Health Care and Social Assistance
July 2023	July 2024	Trend
Active Job Posts 5161	Active Job Posts 5996	Increase 16%
New Job Posts 2803	New Job Posts 3209	Increase 14%
Companies Hiring 1133	Companies Hiring 920	Decrease 19%

This sector includes establishments providing healthcare through diagnosis and treatment, residential care for medical and social reasons, and social assistance such as counseling, welfare, child protection, community housing, vocational rehabilitation, and child care.

The increase in job postings in Toronto’s health care and social assistance sector between July 2023 and July 2024 is driven by several interrelated factors. One significant factor is the city’s aging population, with more Torontonians now over the age of 65 than children aged 15 and under, creating a heightened demand for healthcare professionals and social service workers. Additionally, Ontario’s push towards $10-a-day child care has spurred the expansion of child care services, increasing the need for early childhood educators and staff in childcare centers. Furthermore, urban challenges such as homelessness and the influx of refugees have intensified the demand for social services, including shelters and food banks, which require more staff to manage growing caseloads.

8. Construction Sector
July 2023	July 2024	Trend
Active Job Posts 1360	Active Job Posts 1060	Decrease 22%
New Job Posts 687	New Job Posts 391	Decrease 43%
Companies Hiring 547	Companies Hiring 254	Decrease 54%

Toronto’s Construction sector includes businesses engaged in constructing, repairing and renovating buildings and developing land.

While industry associations and various levels of government have sounded alarm bells about a long-term shortage of skilled labour in construction; the on-the-ground reality is not as promising.  Many construction workers and contractors are warning that work is drying up with few prospects emerging.  Undoubtedly, the construction sector in Toronto is facing significant challenges which is borne out in JobsTO data.  The number of jobs and construction companies advertising for tradespersons including roofers, glaziers, painters, decorators and floor covering installers have declined precipitously.

Many commercial and residential building projects have been delayed or mothballed.  While long-term forecasts for work in the industry are positive, we expect the sector to remain in a slump until there are further interest rate cuts.

9. Manufacturing Sector
July 2023	July 2024	Trend
Active Job Posts 1124	Active Job Posts 1234	Increase 10%
New Job Posts 613	New Job Posts 547	Decrease 11%
Companies Hiring 357	Companies Hiring 288	Decrease 19%

Toronto is home to one of the largest and most advanced manufacturing clusters in Canada.  It is also the third largest centre for food processing.  Our manufacturing sector has shown remarkable resiliency over the past two decades, a testament to both its importance and advanced capacities. 

There has been some amount of erosion of job postings on a year over year basis, however the number of active postings are up.  This indicates that some jobs are harder to fill than others and remain posted for a longer period of time.  A cursory review of the data would seem to indicate that there are fewer postings for labourers, and more postings for skilled trades including millwrights and welders. 

10. Real Estate, Rental and Leasing
July 2023	July 2024	Trend
Active Job Posts 951	Active Job Posts 836	Decrease 12%
New Job Posts 541	New Job Posts 423	Decrease 22%
Companies Hiring 317	Companies Hiring 217	Decrease 32%

This sector comprises businesses engaged in selling, renting, and the leasing of buildings and property. It also includes companies primarily engaged in managing real estate for others; selling, renting and/or buying of real estate for others; and appraising real estate.

Not unsurprisingly, the demand for workers and professionals in this sector has declined precipitously over the past twelve months – in lock step with the decline in housing sales and the leasing of commercial and office space.  Like many, we expect that the recent and forecasted cuts to interest rates will stabilize the sector over the coming months, however we do not see demand for workers in the sector is likely to increase due to the current over supply of workers.

11. Administrative and Support, Waste Management and Remediation Service Sector
July 2023	July 2024	Trend
Active Job Posts 5807	Active Job Posts 3950	Decrease 32%
New Job Posts 3223	New Job Posts 2177	Decrease 32%
Companies Hiring 983	Companies Hiring 638	Decrease 35%

The administration and management sector in Toronto provides several business and environmental supports across a range of industries. The administration and management sector is comprised of several smaller sectors including facilities support, employment services, travel arrangement services, and managing corporate head offices. The sector also consists of management companies who support the day-to-day operations of other organizations, and those primarily engaged in waste management activities.

As with the real estate sector, this sector has been greatly impacted by Toronto’s sluggish real estate and commercial property sales.  Indeed the sector has still not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels.  We expect that demand for workers and professionals in this sector is likely to remain sluggish over the next 12 months.

12. Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
July 2023	July 2024	Trend
Active Job Posts 594	Active Job Posts 467	Decrease 21%
New Job Posts 355	New Job Posts 231	Decrease 35%
Companies Hiring 160	Companies Hiring 127	Decrease 21%

This sector comprises companies and businesses engaged in operating facilities or providing services to meet the cultural, entertainment and recreational interests of their patrons. These establishments produce, promote or participate in live performances, events or exhibits intended for public viewing; provide the artistic, creative and technical skills necessary for the production of artistic products and live performances; preserve and exhibit objects and sites of historical, cultural or educational interest; and operate facilities or provide services that enable patrons to participate in sports or recreational activities or pursue amusement, hobbies and leisure-time interests.

There has been a moderate decline across all job posting indicators in Toronto.  A closer look at some of the sub-sectors indicates a significant year-over-year increase in job demand in   gambling and recreation industries and declines in demand for performing arts, spectator sports and related industries.  Anecdotal evidence also indicates that these is geographic element to some job declines in the downtown core due to ongoing traffic and construction issues.  As these issues resolve themselves.

13. Accommodation and Food Service Sector
July 2023	July 2024	Trend
Active Job Posts 3427	Active Job Posts 2579	Decrease 25%
New Job Posts 1643	New Job Posts 1162	Decrease 29%
Companies Hiring 1204	Companies Hiring 761	Decrease 37%

Toronto has a reputation for its world-class and innovative accommodations, attractions, and food services. From luxury hotels to art-inspired lodging, the city offers a diverse range of hospitality services that will satisfy every type of traveller. The sector includes accommodations, tourism, and food services.  Job demand and hirings have remained sluggish and not recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

A recent industry report indicated the 8.95 million people who visited the city last year was less than the 9.56 million who visited in 2019. The report found that international visitor numbers are still far behind what they were pre-pandemic. For instance, the number of visitors from China — Toronto’s largest overseas tourist market — was 24 per cent what it was before 2020.  Furthermore, like the Entertainment Sector, the downtown core has been disproportionally impacted due to ongoing traffic and construction issues.

Wholesale
July 2023	July 2024	Trend
Active Job Posts 754	Active Job Posts 849	Increase 13%
New Job Posts 382	New Job Posts 391	Increase 2%
Companies Hiring 226	Companies Hiring 190	Decrease 16%

Retail
July 2023	July 2024	Trend
Active Job Posts 3947	Active Job Posts 3790	Decrease 4%
New Job Posts 2256	New Job Posts 2013	Decrease 11%
Companies Hiring 887	Companies Hiring 658	Decrease 26%

Toronto’s Wholesale sector includes businesses engaged in wholesaling merchandise and providing related logistics, marketing and support services. Toronto’s Retail Sector includes businesses engaged in retailing merchandise, including the provision of after-sales services like repair and installation.

Statistics Canada’s August Labour Force Survey reported a 1.5% decline in employment in Ontario’s Wholesale and Retail Trades since July, continuing a downward trend since August 2023. In Toronto, however, hiring in these sectors rebounded robustly since April, reflecting seasonal patterns. Year-over-year, job postings remained stable, but overall employment in the industry dropped by 4.2%.

The number of companies hiring has remained stable, while active job posts have increased since January 2024, with retail leading in employment. Nearly 50% of job posts are in electronics, food, health, and clothing stores. In the wholesale sector, 75% of job postings over the past year are in machinery, equipment, building materials, and motor vehicle parts.

Key Trends:

The Wholesale sector remains stable with a growing demand for personalized B2B services and sustainable supply chains. In contrast, the Retail sector faces uneven growth; luxury retail thrives, while general retail struggles as consumers focus on essential goods due to economic pressures.

Emerging Retail Trends:
High-end retail is thriving in affluent areas, but general retail faces challenges as consumers prioritize essential goods. Retail closures, particularly in strip malls, are leading to mixed-use developments that integrate residential and commercial spaces. Additionally, ongoing construction projects in Toronto are disrupting foot traffic, which is encouraging more local and online shopping.

Recent Developments:

Galleria Mall and Cloverdale Mall are undergoing transformations into mixed-use communities. Yorkdale Shopping Centre is shifting its focus towards luxury retail and entertainment, while Fairview Mall is partially redeveloping into residential and office spaces.